Explanation Devils

Once results come in from an advertising campaign, explanation devils rear their ugly heads. What are they? Those traps of illogical thinking that we can all fall into when we try to explain why a campaign succeeded or failed. There are many explanation devils, but here are three of the most common to watch for.

Post-Hoc Fallacy: The assumption that event A caused event B just because A came first. That telemarketing push increased our sales! Why? Well, we did the telemarketing, then our sales went up. Hello, explanation devil. Remember that correlation does not imply cause. Consider that event C (say, the weather) caused event B (increased sales). Or A and B are unrelated coincidences. Or B caused A.

Regression Fallacy: When a data point deviates far from the average, it is highly probable that the next point is going to be much closer to average. A deviate result is also likely to prompt human intervention. After 75 years of consistent business, a store has a terrible summer. They renovate the store, and voila, the next summer, business comes back. Must have been the renovations! Explanation devil. Unless there was a seismic shift in their company or industry, it is likely that business would have come back towards average without them doing a thing differently.

Confirmation Bias: We all like to be right. And we all have our pet theories. Confirmation bias affects our perception of current events and our memories of earlier events to support our theories. Direct mail is the best advertising medium! Every time it’s used, the store is filled with customers and sales go through the roof! Really? Or are you playing into your biases, only noticing your busy store after your DM hits the market to confirm your theory? Explanation devil!

Watch out for these devils when doing post-mortems on campaigns. Unless you’re doing controlled experiments, there’s no way to know for sure why one thing worked and other thing didn’t. That uncertainty is the “art” of advertising – a frustrating joy.

Are you listening to your customers?

 

Last Friday was full of excitement for all the members of the Finnerty family.  I was scheduled to officially finish school, my wife was planning to have a relaxing day off with me (well – maybe not that exciting for her…), and Ginger was booked in for a day of doggy fun at the doggy day care.

We arrived at K9HQ – the dog daycare– and went about our usual hand off, Ginger fighting to get inside to go play with the other dogs, me fighting to make it look like I had some sort of control over her.  I mentioned to the folks at the daycare that I was graduating, and they said “congrats!” and I was on my way.

The day went well, though a bit rainy, and I learned the looks of admiration while wearing a robe for convocation are largely different than the looks of condemnation one gets while wearing a bath robe.  Who knew Wal-Mart had a dress code? 

I returned to pick up Ginger at the end of the day, and she sulked as she left her friends.  The owner of the daycare handed me an envelope, saying it was something for me.  I opened it up to find a congratulations card, with a nice personal note inside. 

There was no reason for them to do this.  They had already told me congrats that morning, and this card wasn’t just something they had printed off the web or had sitting around.  It was a nice card, with a nice note, from nice people.  Note I said people, not business or company.  These folks acted on one thing that I mentioned, and took the time out of their day to buy something to make me feel appreciated.  And it worked.

You keep hearing that “the devil’s in the details” and “it’s the little things that count” (my wife hears this one often).  The secret is to listen to what your customers are saying.  Find a way to make a connection with them, and they will be the best advertisers for your business. 

Price and quality will continue to be unique selling points, but when all other things are equal, it’s the personal touches that will set you, and your business, apart from the rest.  CRM (Customer Relationship Management) isn’t rocket science.  It’s treating your customers like friends.  

- Jason

Media placement is everything

We try so hard to be funny or clever in advertising. But sometimes, whether by luck or bad planning, humour visits us unheralded. We all win when ads like these get unintentionally mis-placed.

 

 

 

 

 

And one last one to get ya in the mood to Christmas shop…

The kids in the hall

On November 26^th, the 3^rd year BComm students from the University of Victoria will get a chance to put their networking skills to the test at the annual Business Banquet.

Readers of this blog will recall that things didn’t go all that well last year in the reception hall at the start of the evening. So we met recently to come up with a game plan for working the room this year.

Among the suggestions (which anyone might find helpful when faced with the daunting task of introducing yourself to a roomful of business heavyweights):

• Have plenty of business cards.
• Arrive early. It will get harder to break into ongoing conversations as the evening progresses.
• Nurse a drink. Alcohol may give confidence but it’s a judgement thief.
• This is not dating. You are not looking for phone numbers here.
• As an ice breaker, thank the person you’re talking to for coming. Acknowledge that the event is cutting into their personal and family time.
• Listen. Networking is all about getting to know new people, and you can’t get to know someone when you’re yammering on about yourself.
• Try to stick to business. Leave the talk about sports teams and weather to the TV news anchors.
• Don’t ask them if there’s a job at their company for you!
• Nervous wreck? Work the room with a buddy until you loosen up.
• Stuck in a dud conversation? Sneak a glance around for someone you might invite to join in. The chemistry may change and if it doesn’t, you can slide out without leaving the person you were talking to all alone.

Main thing to remember is that the people you are meeting are humans, even though they may seem terrifying. Treat them the way you wish to be treated.

And for heaven sakes, don’t kiss their rings.

Once the evening is over, it’s time to add your new connections to Linkedin and follow up with emails of appreciation to everyone you got a business card from. It’s not enough to feel good about the evening. You have to make it count for something.

Hey, look at me!

Scanning through some American ad sites lately I came across this one that appeared in The Economist for a law firm.

Is it a good idea to remind the general public that there are ad agencies who write the ads, and that the companies don’t do it themselves? Do people see the copywriter behind the curtain when they’re reading an ad? Does it make the company seem less, I don’t know, authentic? More manipulating and contriving?

Does anyone even know what a copywriter is? Is it good for the company to have a copywriter going “HEY! IT’S ME! THE GUY WHO WROTE THIS AD!”

I’ve never really liked the style of advertising that calls attention to the agency. David Abbott did it famously for Volvo in the UK back in the 80’s. He lay on the ground on his back under a Volvo suspended by a single cable with the headline: If the welding isn’t strong enough, the car will fall on the writer.

But David Abbott WAS advertising in the 80s. As Neil French was in the 90s. All his ads, no matter the client, sounded like Neil, chattering away.

I don’t get the feel that this law firm ad, or the writer of it,  will be remembered in 20 years.